Indicadores Económicos:
  • Dólar TRM:    $ 3,416.21     —     Euro:    $4,181.96     —     Bolivar:    $0.00     —     Café lb. (May 2019) :    US$1.1135     —     U.V.R.:    $275.7147     —     DTF:    4.53%     —     Petróleo WTI:    US$39.75     —     Usura:    27.18%     —     COLCAP:    1,528.09     —     IBR:    %     —     Inflación (Nov-2020) :    -0.15%

Can We Expect An Oil Price Spike In November?

  • 5 de Septiembre, 2018  /  4:34 pm
  • OIL360
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-We-Expect-An-Oil-Price-Spike-In-November.html

In the first installment of this article we discussed the continued relevance of the four historic legs of an overall energy thesis for the price movement of oil. In that installment we found that, oil should move gradually to the upside as the summer wound down. So far, it has delivered as per the expectation. 

These four legs are summarized below.

  • Equilibrium between supply and demand, leaving little room for supply disruption.
  • The strength of the dollar weakens as trade tensions ease.
  • The Saudi factor, in terms of being able to fill losses from other countries
  • Capex for long cycle mega projects, still languishes in spite of growing recognition that there is a gap between supply and production on the horizon.

Not much has changed in the last couple of weeks on those four, so we will leave them for now. If you wish to review these for comment, here is a link to the previous article in this series.

In this part I want to discuss what I think is the most relevant potential Geopolitical event facing the crude market today. Iran, and possible near-term impacts on oil from the renewal of American sanctions.

Iran is in a period of extreme social stress, induced in part by the renewal of American sanctions on their government. In engineering school we learn when stress is applied in sufficient amounts to a material, the stress will eventually exceed the yield strength of the material, resulting in its abrupt failure. Societies have their breaking points as well, and I believe Iran’s is showing signs of extreme stress.

Iran is beginning to exhibit the external features of extreme societal disruption in a way that we haven't seen in the last forty years. The last time there was this much civil unrest in this country, it was called "The Revolution."

The Russian Revolutions of 1917, The Chinese Revolution of 1949, or perhaps the American Revolution, teach us couple of things in particular.

Revolutions are messy.

And, revolutions in Iran have a historic impact on oil prices.

If a revolution occurs in present-day Iran, we should expect no less dislocation than the previous one in 1978.

So, in this article we will look at some of the factors extant in this bell weather country, from the perspective of possible outcomes for oil.

I am certainly mindful that there are other hot-spots, notably VZ that will have an impact on the availability of oil in the near future. I view none of these as having the potential impact of the renewed sanctions on Iran, so we will keep the focus on Iran in this article.

Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-We-Expect-An-Oil-Price-Spike-In-November.html

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Publicado por José Daniel Tordecilla Blanco

Periodista OIL Channel: Estudiante de Ingeniera de Petróleos de la Facultad de Minas de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Medellín. Vice Presidente de European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers y ACIPET, UNALMED student chapters.

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